Sounds like the usual fair so. Roll on the switch in the AMO index. Just another 5/10 years to wait. 

2020 onwards......... 😎

Ok, so this is the way I see it at the moment:

ENSO - Borderline  -neutral/weak La Nina likely - slightly favours a cold Winter

eQBO - timing/amplitude should favour a colder Winter

Solar cycle position - favours a cold Winter

Atlantic SST Profile - favours a milder Winter

October synoptic anomalies - favour a cold Winter

So on paper it should be a cold Winter, but it would just be our bad luck if the Atlantic SST's trumped everything else wouldn't it!!

The really intriguing thing is that 1962 does seem to be the best analogue for 2017 in terms of having similar ENSO set up, similar eQBO profile, and around the same position in the Solar Cycle, plus October 1962's synoptic anomalies were similar to 2017.  

Furthermore, I've noticed that Novembers that have higher than normal pressure over Greenland especially in the second half of the month, are generally followed by cold Winters.  The model outlook certainly points towards a lengthy spell of Greenland blocking,  so I think another reason to be more optimistic.  

Also there's no reason to be downbeat about the UK missing out on significant cold weather this month.  The Novembers of 1984, 1995, 2009 and 2012 failed to bring in any notably cold weather, and instead produced mild cyclonic spells with southerly winds. All of the Winters that followed were cold and wintry.  

So at the moment, I would lean towards it being colder than average this Winter, but still a bit early to say for sure.  If we get a strong Greenland High for the rest of this month, then that increases the chances.

 

 

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The way I see it is the same as the last 3 winters...a none event...we've had numerous perfect scenarios, when even the Met Office were forecasting harsh conditions, and yet they still haven't produced any proper winter weather for the majority of the UK, so I don't see how this winter will be any different for most of us...

Ok, so this is the way I see it at the moment:

ENSO - Borderline  -neutral/weak La Nina likely - slightly favours a cold Winter

eQBO - timing/amplitude should favour a colder Winter

Solar cycle position - favours a cold Winter

Atlantic SST Profile - favours a milder Winter

October synoptic anomalies - favour a cold Winter

So on paper it should be a cold Winter, but it would just be our bad luck if the Atlantic SST's trumped everything else wouldn't it!!

The really intriguing thing is that 1962 does seem to be the best analogue for 2017 in terms of having similar ENSO set up, similar eQBO profile, and around the same position in the Solar Cycle, plus October 1962's synoptic anomalies were similar to 2017.  

Furthermore, I've noticed that Novembers that have higher than normal pressure over Greenland especially in the second half of the month, are generally followed by cold Winters.  The model outlook certainly points towards a lengthy spell of Greenland blocking,  so I think another reason to be more optimistic.  

Also there's no reason to be downbeat about the UK missing out on significant cold weather this month.  The Novembers of 1984, 1995, 2009 and 2012 failed to bring in any notably cold weather, and instead produced mild cyclonic spells with southerly winds. All of the Winters that followed were cold and wintry.  

So at the moment, I would lean towards it being colder than average this Winter, but still a bit early to say for sure.  If we get a strong Greenland High for the rest of this month, then that increases the chances.

 

 

2012 cold and wintery winter.. really?? 

The way I see it is the same as the last 3 winters...a none event...we've had numerous perfect scenarios, when even the Met Office were forecasting harsh conditions, and yet they still haven't produced any proper winter weather for the majority of the UK, so I don't see how this winter will be any different for most of us...

Andy J's post gives a whole list of reasons. The quasi-biennial oscillation at last turning back to its easterly phase is a big one for a start.

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Ok, so this is the way I see it at the moment:

ENSO - Borderline  -neutral/weak La Nina likely - slightly favours a cold Winter

eQBO - timing/amplitude should favour a colder Winter

Solar cycle position - favours a cold Winter

Atlantic SST Profile - favours a milder Winter

October synoptic anomalies - favour a cold Winter

So on paper it should be a cold Winter, but it would just be our bad luck if the Atlantic SST's trumped everything else wouldn't it!!

The really intriguing thing is that 1962 does seem to be the best analogue for 2017 in terms of having similar ENSO set up, similar eQBO profile, and around the same position in the Solar Cycle, plus October 1962's synoptic anomalies were similar to 2017.  

Furthermore, I've noticed that Novembers that have higher than normal pressure over Greenland especially in the second half of the month, are generally followed by cold Winters.  The model outlook certainly points towards a lengthy spell of Greenland blocking,  so I think another reason to be more optimistic.  

Also there's no reason to be downbeat about the UK missing out on significant cold weather this month.  The Novembers of 1984, 1995, 2009 and 2012 failed to bring in any notably cold weather, and instead produced mild cyclonic spells with southerly winds. All of the Winters that followed were cold and wintry.  

So at the moment, I would lean towards it being colder than average this Winter, but still a bit early to say for sure.  If we get a strong Greenland High for the rest of this month, then that increases the chances.

 

 

Great round up! 

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The way I see it is the same as the last 3 winters...a none event...we've had numerous perfect scenarios, when even the Met Office were forecasting harsh conditions, and yet they still haven't produced any proper winter weather for the majority of the UK, so I don't see how this winter will be any different for most of us...

I know where you are coming from, but just because the last few winters have not produced any notable wintry spells doesn't mean to say that this coming one won't do so. One could easily have said the same thing at this time in 2009, for example.

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The way I see it is the same as the last 3 winters...a none event...we've had numerous perfect scenarios, when even the Met Office were forecasting harsh conditions, and yet they still haven't produced any proper winter weather for the majority of the UK, so I don't see how this winter will be any different for most of us...

The only place any perfect scenarios have appeared over the past few winters have been in the computer models, usually at about t+384. In the real world the synoptics have been utterly dire and as woeful as it is possible to get for snow in this country.

I've had 30 days with lying snow over the past three winters, all transitory but it's quite incredible it's even that high given the totally useless synoptics and dearth of northerlies.

Not looking any different this winter if this truly awful seasonal outlook here from ECM comes to fruition:

https://weather.us/monthly-charts/euro/europe/anomaly-msl/20171201-0000z.html 

Winter will be a complete write-off if these verify. Just filth with an anomalous SE flow for December and January.

It’s not so much the lack of snow in recent years which gets me, but the sheer amount of these vile SE winds delivering copious rainfall and an extreme lack of frost. After 2013/14, the first half of 2015/16 and the second half of 2016/17 we should not be expecting to have to endure more of this. It’s beyond a joke.

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2012 cold and wintery winter.. really?? 

I mean the Winter following the November of 2012 - Winter 2012/13.   It was cold and wintry for most places.

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I mean the Winter following the November of 2012 - Winter 2012/13.   It was cold and wintry for most places.

That was the case from early January 2013 onwards, according to my recollection. December 2012 started off cold, but there was a mild and wet spell which commenced just before Xmas which then lasted over the festive season into the early days of January. After that had ended though, we had very little by way of atlantic dominated weather during the rest of that winter.

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I mean the Winter following the November of 2012 - Winter 2012/13.   It was cold and wintry for most places.

It was abundantly clear which winter you were referring to, Andy; your summary is spot on and interesting.

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I seem to feel that January offers the best hope for cold and snow - perhaps the second or 3rd week of month - perhaps lasting a week.

The BCC show January to be the coldest month,As well as the ECMWF. The CFS V2 etc always over do the temperatures show that although even then it does show that NW of Europe will be the coolest or closest to average in terms of temperatures especially in January when most of Europe is above or well average in dark red colours according to many models esp CFS V2 temp when we are average to slightly above. - There could be some colder weather around mid January I sense. Perhaps a lot of cold zonality like 2014/2015!? - just hope it lasts this time for more than a day.

The Met office CFS seasonal probability temperature forecast can be very misleading because it's a 3 monthly period which of course shows above average throughout the whole of winter DEC/JAN/FEB. But it could be that we see some cold weather and a more blocked pattern for a time in January.

Looks like most of the weather forecasts for north America show ridging off the Florida coast bringing up milder weather for the EASTERN seaboard with any cold air to the mid west and north west of great lakes. - Obviously the weather over there will impact our weather as well.

The problem we also had last winter was the absence of the Greenland block despite so many chances - at least this winter there are some models that show a blocked pattern over Greenland. But then again the stratosphere is cooling rapidly as well, but we will be in an easterly QBO, yet a developing La Nina, so things could be difficult to forecast and I am very much looking forward to watching Gav's winter forecast for 2017/18.

So my thought ATM - is for January 2018 to provide us with cold and wintry weather. 

Time will tell.

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One of the problems last winter was the absence of Greenland HP - so consequently the PV was strengthened and the HP was flattened over Scandi and then slipped southwards. The latest GFS chart shows the Greenland HP persisting into end of November and moving up from Azores and strengthening! Then after it's all FI: 

 

 

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Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?

2003: 4.8

1976: 2.0

1970: 4.3

1960: 3.9

1950: 1.2

1940: 3.8

1896: 3.9

1858: 4.8

1846: 0.5

1826: 5.8

1822: 1.6

1818: 3.6

1798: 1.5

1786: 2.8

1785: 2.8

1781: 5.4

1775: 4.5

1772: 4.8

1762: 3.6

1728: 1.6

1726: 1.6

1707: 3.5

1676: -0.5

1672: 4.5

 

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Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?

2003: 4.8

1976: 2.0

1970: 4.3

1960: 3.9

1950: 1.2

1940: 3.8

1896: 3.9

1858: 4.8

1846: 0.5

1826: 5.8

1822: 1.6

1818: 3.6

1798: 1.5

1786: 2.8

1785: 2.8

1781: 5.4

1775: 4.5

1772: 4.8

1762: 3.6

1728: 1.6

1726: 1.6

1707: 3.5

1676: -0.5

1672: 4.5

 

 

tou mean there was a warm June in 1672 thought it was only warm for the last 30 years!

Junes with a CET of 16.0C or greater are frequently followed at the end of the year by a below average December. Stats quirk?

2003: 4.8

1976: 2.0

1970: 4.3

1960: 3.9

1950: 1.2

1940: 3.8

1896: 3.9

1858: 4.8

1846: 0.5

1826: 5.8

1822: 1.6

1818: 3.6

1798: 1.5

1786: 2.8

1785: 2.8

1781: 5.4

1775: 4.5

1772: 4.8

1762: 3.6

1728: 1.6

1726: 1.6

1707: 3.5

1676: -0.5

1672: 4.5

 

22 out of 344 is hardly frequent - 6.4%

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22 out of 344 is hardly frequent - 6.4%

I point out I was referring to only the Junes with a CET of 16.0 or over and not the whole lot! 😆

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2012 cold and wintery winter.. really?? 

Clearly Andy's post referred to the winter following November 2012

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I point out I was referring to only the Junes with a CET of 16.0 or over and not the whole lot! 😆

Indeed; Jim will note that the % with reference to those 16C + Junes is much higher.

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Ian Fergusson‏

"W COUNTRY; latest 3-monthly probabilistic outlook from @metoffice: December likely (but not guaranteed) to be colder & drier v avg; rest of winter more likely to trend into wetter/milder territory, with a higher risk of heavy rain/windier episodes."